Republican candidate Tom Foley has a nine percentage point lead over incumbent Democrat Gov. Dannel Malloy, according to a poll released Monday by the New York Times, CBS and nonpartisan research firm YouGov.
The poll showed Foley leading Malloy 42 to 33 in a hypothetical general election match-up. The Greenwich businessman and former U.S. ambassador was the 2010 Republican nominee and is seeking a rematch against Malloy this fall. He faces an Aug. 12 primary against state senate minority leader John McKinney.
Malloy won by about 6,400 votes last election, and previous Quinnipiac University polls this year have shown the two in a dead heat, suggesting another close race if Foley wins the nomination.
The NYT/YouGov/CBS poll collected data using an online survey – a switch from telephone polling, which is the traditional research method used by Quinnipiac University and others.
“Random-digit dialing has long been the gold standard for public polling, but declining response rates may be complicating the ability of telephone polls to capitalize on the advantages of random sampling,” New York Times reporter Nate Cohn wrote in an article about the survey and its methodology. But, he wrote, “There are still questions about the effectiveness of web panels, which can reach only the 81 percent of Americans who use the Internet.” Cohn also observed that phone polling allows for a level of randomization in selecting a sample of voters that cannot be obtained with a web survey.
A breakdown of the results shows Malloy enjoys support from women, black and Hispanic voters. In each of those three categories, he had at least a 10 point lead over Foley. 54 percent of black voters said they would vote for Malloy, with only 25 percent polled saying they would vote for Foley. Similarly, 49 percent of Hispanic voters supported Malloy, compared to only 8 percent who supported Foley.