McMahon, Murphy React to New UConn/Courant Poll Showing Murphy Up By 6 Points; UConn Defends Poll Methodology

By Daniela Altimari On October 18, 2012 · 3 Comments

This morning’s University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant poll showing Democrat Chris Murphy leading Republican Linda McMahon, 44 percent to 38 percent, in the hotly contested Connecticut Senate race drew swift reactions from both sides.

McMahon campaign manager Corry Bliss questioned the poll’s methodology:

“These results are extremely suspect. Even the poll director herself is hedging on the veracity of the results by saying it is ‘not necessarily a 6-point lead,’ so this is a clear indication that the methodology of this poll is completely flawed. Clearly, this poll oversampled Democrats and severely undersampled Independents. Recognizing that Independents represent the largest voting bloc in the state and that Linda McMahon has been winning Independents by a significant margin in every other public poll released during the past several weeks, it becomes obvious that this poll is not representative of Connecticut’s voting population — despite the Courant‘s biased attempt to dismiss the sampling errors. Linda McMahon will defeat Chris Murphy in this race because she is the only candidate who has a plan in place to bring back jobs, cut middle-class taxes, and get our economy back on track. After six failed years in Congress, Connecticut voters will ultimately decide they just can’t afford six more years of Congressman Murphy’s failures.”

From Murphy spokesman Eli Zupnick:

“Linda McMahon’s campaign is now so desperate to convince people that this race isn’t slipping away that they are more focused on attacking polls than talking about issues. Connecticut voters are seeing past McMahon’s nasty personal attacks and are hearing more and more about her right-wing Republican plans to end Social Security, privatize Medicare, cut taxes for the rich, and deny rape victims access to emergency contraception,” said Murphy campaign spokesman Eli Zupnick. ”And the more they learn, the more they move toward Chris Murphy, the one candidate with a strong record of fighting for jobs and Connecticut’s middle class families.”

UConn poll director Jennifer Necci Dineen said Thursday that the complaints about “oversampling” are nothing new in political campaigns, saying that similar charges were made by supporters of Democrat John Kerry during the 2004 presidential race that was later won by Republican President George W. Bush.

The poll released the following statement:

“The University of Connecticut/Hartford Courant Poll stands firmly behind its results, including the methodology used for screening likely voters. We begin with a random sample of all Connecticut adults, screening to ensure the respondent is registered and then asking a series of questions to determine the respondents’ likelihood to vote. Those likely voters then receive the remainder of the questionnaire.

“A party’s voter registration or the party with which they say they identify – which are not necessarily the same — do not factor in to “likely voter” status. Our intention is to produce the best, most objective picture of the race for Connecticut’s open Senate seat as of the time of the polling.

“While the data in our October 18 release shows an increase in Chris Murphy’s share of the vote, the point spread is within the survey’s margin of error. A margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points means that the survey estimates that McMahon’s share of the vote is 38 percent, plus or minus 4 (resulting in a range of 34 to 42 percent). Likewise, Chris Murphy’s number of 44 percent, plus or minus 4, means his share of the vote is between 40 and 48 percent. The actual difference could be 6 points, but it could also be more or less.”

3 Responses to McMahon, Murphy React to New UConn/Courant Poll Showing Murphy Up By 6 Points; UConn Defends Poll Methodology

Richard says:

October 18, 2012 at 12:06 pm

As she continues to get mealy mouthed on abortion and emergency contraception she loses the social conservatives completely. Reduced simply to the economics of the thing she’s got only one thing going for her: Murphy.
Mike Robinson says:

October 18, 2012 at 1:10 pm

Corry Bliss is a funny guy. Last campaign he was taken to court and charged with libel for his false attacks on his opponent. Here is his sad letter of apology. Uhhhhhhhhhhh, Corry, why are you apologizing?

http://courantblogs.com/capitol-watch/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/bliss-2.jpg
Sharon says:

October 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm

By this point in time it would be feasible for the Murphy campaign to have at least seen the factcheck.org report finding that these claims of his are mostly false, sad when a Democrat leaning organization has to admit that one of their own is holding numerous Pinocchio’s in his hand. Murphy even repeated these same false attacks when questioned about them in the debate on WFSB. Mr. Murphy has a failed campaign style and strategy and really believes that the unions alone will carry him across the finish line. The fact is that these poll results are way outside of what has been reported by a far more credible organization and may be being reported in a sad attempt to discourage McMahon supporters. Mr. Murphy, when supporters come out to rally for a candidate hours before a debate as did many I saw at the last debate they will crawl if need be to get to the polls. I saw a pathetic group of union only people on your side of the street.