Q Poll Finds CT Senate Race a Dead Heat

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Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Chris Murphy are essentially deadlocked in the Connecticut Senate race, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

The survey, released Thursday morning, shows McMahon with 48 percent, and Murphy at 47. The poll\’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

The gender gap that has marked the race from the start — the fact that women prefer Murphy and men favor McMahon — continues to play out in the current poll.  Men back McMahon 52 – 45 percent, while women favor Murphy 50 – 44 percent.

But in a troubling trend for Murphy, the poll also uncovered an \”enthusiasm gap.\” Half of McMahon backers are \”very enthusiastic,\” while 39 percent are \”somewhat enthusiastic.\” Among Murphy supporters,  27 percent described themselves as \”very enthusiastic\” and 55 percent are \”somewhat enthusiastic.\”

Also, unaffiliated voters are breaking Republican in this race. Fifty-two percent favor McMahon, 43 percent back Murphy. Unaffiliated voters make up the largest block of the Connecticut electorate.

The survey results reflect the power of negative ads.

\”McMahon\’s blanketing the airwaves with TV ads appears to be working,\’\’ poll Director Douglas Schwartz said in a press release accompanying the survey results. \”More voters have seen her ads than Murphy\’s and more voters think they are effective.\’\’

More than percent of voters have seen McMahon campaign ads \”very often\” or \”somewhat often,\” compared with 64 percent for Murphy. And 66 percent of voters said  McMahon\’s ads are \”very effective\” or \”somewhat effective,\” compared to 51 percent for Murphy.

\”While the horserace has barely changed, the images of both candidates have declined since August, as the campaign attacks have increased,\” Schwartz said. \”Murphy\’s negatives are up 10 points and McMahon\’s are up 6 points. McMahon has done a good job defining Murphy, who was not well known statewide, in a negative way.\’\’

Murphy could get a boost from the top of the ticket: President Barack Obama handily out-polls Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Obama is favored by 54 percent of Connecticut likely voters; Romney by 42 percent.

Women back the president 59 – 37 percent, while men are split, with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters also are divided, with 48 percent for Obama and 45 percent for Romney.

Obama\’s 12-point edge over Romney is an improvement over his performance in the Aug. 28 Q poll, when he led Romney by 7 percentage points.

The poll of 1,696 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2.

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6 thoughts on “Q Poll Finds CT Senate Race a Dead Heat

  1. Quan

    Only in CT could such an exposed, lazy loser such as Murphy compete with Ms. McMahon. CT voters are so blue and willfully blind that they even overlook character issues whilst jumping off the proverbial cliff to be with their fellow Democrats. Sad and disgusting.

  2. James J. Connolly

    At the end of this election, McMahon will have spent over $100 million of her own cash on her personal vanity campaign for higher office and will still be sitting in her fancy condo in Stamford. She needs to retire to her own private island. She has no political knowledge or even interests. Stop with all the crummy ads in every medium. We are tired, tired, tired of Linda!

  3. Donald K. Martin

    How can anyone consider voting for Chris Murphy who is a “proven liar and cheat” not only on a one-time basis but on a continuing basis! His actions in the past border on criminal violations but his powerful friends will prevent any legal action to occur. Let’s stop Murphy with by voting for McMahon!

  4. Richard

    A Gop Senator, a GOP House Seat and a GOP Governor in 2014. Then its a return to normalcy for CT.

    1. Mike Robinson

      I’m a Democrat but I could have gone for Chris Shays, a moderate Republican, an intelligent man that knows CT and Washington. That’s the only kind of Republican we can really live with here in New England. I hope he finds his way back. It’s a shame that we might end up with… the wrestling lady. She crushed him with her checkbook, not her abilities.

  5. Mike Robinson

    People would condemn her for secretly buying the election. When she does it right out in the open then it is OK. I’m frightened that my state might be stolen by this carpetbagger from North Carolina who has never held a public office in her 64 years.

    Ooooooh, he made a late payment. So did everyone else that has struggled to make ends meet.

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