Times, Rothenberg Call Fifth A Toss-Up, Others Favor Dems

The fifth district congressional race is now a “toss-up”  in the eyes of at least two general election predictors, but others maintain that Democrats will hold onto seat covering much of the northwestern part of the state.

In its House Race Ratings map for the general election, The New York Times now says the Fifth District is one of 22 “tossup” races nationwide after it had previously been projected in favor of Democrats.

Connecticut’s four other congressional races, which all have incumbents running for re-election, are projected as “solid Democratic.”

After seven new arrests were announced last week in a federal probe of former staffers for Democratic candidate Chris Donovan, The Rothenberg Political Report also changed its rating of the race, from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss Up/Tilts Democrat.”

Both Rothenberg and the Times have cited the ongoing investigation as a factor in their ratings.

Donovan picked up his party’s convention endorsement in mid-May, just days before the scandal broke. And at least one poll taken after the probe began showed him to be a frontrunner to win the party’s nomination to run in the general election, where a Republican candidate would almost certainly use the investigation to attack the outgoing House Speaker’s credibility.

But other outlets with an eye on November say Democrats will keep the seat, although its unclear if those projections have been updated since the additional arrests were made public last week.

In ratings put out the day of the arrests, The Cook Political Report marked the Fifth District race as “Likely Democratic.”

Real Clear Politics  and Roll Call, a newspaper in the nation’s Capitol, both make the similar characterization, although neither specify when their predictions were last updated.

Donovan faces two competitors, former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty and public relations executive Dan Roberti, in an Aug. 14 primary.