Forecast for Job Growth in 13: Crummy

by Categorized: Uncategorized Date:

If the forecast for the New England Economic Partnership proves true, Connecticut is going to have a terrible year for job growth.

Ed Deak, professor emeritus of economics at Fairfield University, projects that there will be just 5,500 positions added at the state’s employers during the year. There have been 6,300 added since January, so for that forecast to match reality, employers would have to cut more jobs than they add the rest of the year.

His forecast for 2012 was overly gloomy, as the state added 8,600 jobs, far more than the 4,900 he projected. But Deak said he thinks if anything, this forecast is too optimistic.

Deak says Connecticut’s recovery will be hurt disproportionately by the federal budget cuts known as sequestration, and he thinks the construction hiring that’s been strong this spring is temporary, based on Sandy repairs, rather than stemming from a rebound in housing.

Deak is projecting robust growth won’t arrive until 2015, though he suggests the economy will roar back that year, with 29,700 jobs added. The state hasn’t added that many jobs in a single year in a generation.

“To have Connecticut do 22,000 would be a banner year,” Deak said.

Deak said it’s troubling that both Massachusetts and New York have recovered all the jobs that were lost during the recession, while Connecticut is still just 47 percent of the way back.

And while the NEEP conference theme Thursday is about a manufacturing renaissance, Deak said Connecticut’s manufacturing data is sobering.

First of all, there were 2,500 fewer manufacturing jobs in April than there were a year earlier. Second, the losses in durable goods manufacturing — the higher-paid jobs — were far more dramatic than in the rest of manufacturing.

Data on manufacturing production job pay, too, tells that story, as the average hourly wage fell by nearly 10 percent over the year, to $24.83 an hour.

“Those companies that are repatriating jobs back into the United States,” Deak said, they’re choosing the Southeast, “where it’s less expensive to do business.”

The Courant is using Facebook comments on stories. To comment on courant.com articles, sign into Facebook and enter your comment in the field below. Comments will appear in your Facebook News Feed unless you choose otherwise. To report spam or abuse, click the X next to the comment. For guidelines on commenting, click here.

11 thoughts on “Forecast for Job Growth in 13: Crummy

  1. sue

    How can this be. Hasn’t DANNY BOY created tens of thousands of jobs by stealing from the middle class to give mula to the greedy pig businessmen. And Deak predicts 29,700 jobs to be added in 2015. What an absolute job. The downward death spiral continues thanks to the ‘RATS and RINOS who know nothing but tax borrow and spend tax borrow and spend

  2. Bill

    Hey, but at least we’re working on positive solutions by spending time and energy approving licenses for illegal residents, right?

    1. jschmidt

      Well next they’ll be getting voting rights in the state so the Dems can insure total control forever.

  3. State Worker

    You corporate clowns are always worried about your next pay check, but there’s no problems here working for Dan. I’ve been racking up the overtime for my pension and lifetime medical benefits, and even have time to surf the web. You had your chance to join us, but now your going to keep paying for us. Dan, he’s our man. No layoff’s, ever, no worries and lots of OT.

    1. alan

      this is kind of funny as it is meant to be a joke but actually true. My sister in law in DSS is a 70k “manager” in DSS but works a lot of saturdays on OT-when asked how a manager gets OT she says “I’ll take it while i can get it”. That should be the state motto for Geno loving Hartford vampires who drain the productive areas of the state

  4. John

    Look at ESPN. In 2011 they became part of Malloy’s “First Five” program where they were given a 10-year, $17.5 million loan tied to a promise to create 200 new jobs in CT within 5 years. Yet another failure. When will politians figure out you cannot “buy” job growth in this state? You need to create a climate that is business friendly where jobs will develop and grow. Look at our neighboring states and see how they are doing much better. It is not the economy that is the problem. Simply drive across the border to Massachusetts and enjoy fuel at $0.20/gallon less. This state needs major budget cutting and new vision from the top office.

  5. JM

    “Deak said it’s troubling that both Massachusetts and New York have recovered all the jobs that were lost during the recession, while Connecticut is still just 47 percent of the way back.”

    Is that right? NY’s unemployment rate is still 7.8% and Mass. is 6.4%. That can’t be right – the rates had to have been lower when the recession started.

  6. Mara Lee Post author

    JM,

    The rates definitely were lower, and while technically that could be true, if you had enough demographic change in the state (imagine if all the new jobs were captured by migrants, for instance), I’m not sure where reports like this one — http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/03/21/strong-job-growth-reaches-milestone/lrGv9Ou4VUULmQsMLeuX2J/story.html

    are coming from, given that the BLS says peak employment in Massachusetts was 3,289,575 in 2008, and it was 3,251,174 at its high point this year.

    The unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in Mass in 2007, and 4.8 percent the month of peak jobs in 2008.

  7. Palin Smith

    Raising the minimum raise will keep more young people from obtaining their first and most important job. Jobs returned where governors either cut or capped taxes. Dannel Malloy took a different path. His “road less traveled” resulted in less jobs. A village idiot could have predicted that.

    But Malloy and the majority party in Hartford are not so smart. Neither are the voters who complain about no jobs but keep returning the incumbent JOB KILLERS to the General Assembly every two years. Einstein was right. Connecticut is insane. Perhaps the voters should vote for the other guy in 2014, just to be different. It couldn’t get any worse.

  8. jschmidt

    A new minimum wage hike and now drivers licenses for illegals. WoW. THe Dems are trying to really get business moving in the state. Which is why we are ranked near the bottom for business friendly. CT used to be a good state until the Dems took control. Don’t know if the voters will ever learn.

Comments are closed.