It’s tough to get a break on economic news in a state where every piece of good news is matched by word of layoffs and sluggish job gains overall. Now we find that even the recent past was worse than we thought, and that means, according to the latest UConn forecast, another two years of lousy gains.
The recession knocked nearly 9 percent off Connecticut’s overall economic output, and it bottomed out toward the end of 2009, not the spring of that year, according to U.S. Department of Labor revisions cited in a new forecast by the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut.
That’s dramatically worse than the 3 percent drop we thought we had seen — though, in reality, did anyone really think the decline from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009 was in the low-single digits?
The old numbers matter, though, because they guide predictions, and CCEA now says Connecticut’s overall economic output will grow by 0.6 percent over the next 12 months, followed by a whopping gain of 1.3 percent — adjusted for inflation, which is predicted to be 1.3 percent.
This translates to lukewarm job gains of 10,000 to 20,000 over the next two years, according to CCEA, which is headed by economist Fred V. Carstensen. The difference in those two numbers is based on the likely positive effects of big projects such as the expansion of the UConn Health Center and Jackson Labs, which Catstensen supported mightily, along with the Hartford-New Britain Busway, which is federal pork, but it’s our pork and we need it.
Connecticut’s vaunted finance, insurance and real estate sector, which accounts for about a third of all economic activity, showed a scary drop in the spring, CCEA reports — not flat, but actually down for the quarter. The good news is that other services, including health, are still rising.
Another bright spot in 2012 is the home construction market, which showed a gain of 33 percent in new permits in the first six months of this year compared with the same period in 2011.
But that’s a gain from an anemic year in which permits fell below 3,000, probably for the first time since the Spanish-American War. In all, even the newly enlarged housing construction industry accounts for about $1 billion, which sounds big but it’s only one-half of 1 percent of the state’s economy.
By the middle of 2014, we’ll still be at least 65,000 jobs short of the total we had at the start of 2008, CCEA’s forecast shows.
“Closing this gap will require more than just job creation,” the report said. “It requires policies to recover the pride and the employability of persons who have suffered from long-term unemployment.”
The report cites two examples: The Mashantucket Pequots’ long and proud history of rehabilitating individuals drawn from the slums of New England,” and “Platform to Employment” in Stamford, a public-private effort that offers 5-week courses to “reorient” people whose unemployment benefits have run out.
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22 Responses to State’s Permacession Takes Hold As UConn Forecasts Two More Lousy Years
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lies lies and damn lies. That’s right taxpayers of CT. The 10,000 – 20,000 job projections are lies. Fred lives in a fantasy world. You see folks economists like Fred are typical tax and spend liberals. He uses outdated multiplier models to come up with bogus job projections. Where are the 4,000 jobs he and DANNY BOY promised at the busway. You’ll be lucky to see 200 – 300 jobs but the HC won’t report on it. You’ll be lucky to see 1,000 jobs at the Jackson lab construction. You may ask how do I know. Well there are ONLY 2,000 jobs are the reconstruction of 1 World trade center and that is a multi-BILLION project. DANNY BOY LIED and Fred’s projections are bogus
We are witnessing the economic demise of Connecticut made worse by failed liberal policies. We can’t possibly expect to tax, spend, and borrow our way to prosperity. Keep electing liberals and watch this state circle the drain. Connecticut- the new California.
this is a private sector recession only. We have Phd’s in physics sitting on pins and needles at Hamilton Sunstrand working 60 hrs a week to keep thier job making maybe 100k(or less) but any phys ed teacher after 25 years is making 90k(or 500/day) with a pension worth a 750k annuity. I know dentist and restaurant owners scrimping by..and I know retired park rangers makng 65K a year at age 52 by gaming the sytem. The Courant used to be a cheerleader of govt spending, but is only now realizing how damaging this was.
Courant still IS the cheerleader for govt spending – they are total support of the busway.
It is going to come as a stark reality when the state employees find their pension benefits have to be cut because the democrats all the money and they have no one left toraise taxes on.
Malloy as Gov = Continued recession in CT
If this doesn’t convince the citizens of Ct. that we have to change course with the leadership we have then nothing will. All the Dem’s have to go from Conn and in Washington. Goodbye Murphy, Larson and the rest in November.
The failed liberal policies of the State of Connecticut’s Democratic party are coming home to roost. They even voted in the Implementer bill that passed by party line to NOT TELL people how bad the deficit is in this state until AFTER the election. We are in total decline at this point. You cant tax your way out of this one folks. CUTS are coming…. as for the liberals in Hartford at the Capitol NOVEMBER is coming and you will be unemployed looking for jobs. That arrogant crook Donavan is the tip of the iceberg folks. As for King Dannel Malloy he is an epic failure and doomed to one term in a landslide loss. He will join Lowell Weicker in infamy as failed Governors who were epically arrogant.You heard it here first Andy Rohraback for Governor in 2014!!!
The citizens of Connecticut are reaping what the majority of the voting special interests are sowing.
20,000 jobs in 2 years — 192 new jobs every week for two years — is a “permanent recession”??
You’re just scaring the knuckle-dragging right-wing (see comments above).
If you think things are “normal” Lawrence you are part of the problem.
Lawrence: where’s the full story instead of the left-wing talking points? Tell us how many jobs were LOST in 2 years. Let’s talk NET job gain, shall we?
You’re just scaring the socialist, liberal, share-the-misery left-wing-nuts with half the story.
This is not a issue of liberal vs conservative. This is an issue of greed. Jobs are outsourced to foreign countries so that the CEO’s of these corporations can make more money for themselves. Why can’t the people of America see this? Not to be partisan, but actually the GOP is largely the one’s who support this policy. It has nothing to do with lower taxes, only greed. Do you really think they would stay here if taxes were lower? The American worker demands higher wages and justifiably so. But they won’t get them when the same work can be done overseas for less and the fat cats who own the companies get richer. When Romney wins, the middle class here is history. The rich will be richer and the middle class will be poor. Jobs will be in service industries only.
buddy: you seem to contradict yourself by calling corporations greedy then stating “The American worker demands higher wages and justifiably so.”
No greed there, right? How about you? Have you passed up any raises lately?
I’m on welfare
Figures. Living off of others. At least the greedy CEO works where the greedy welfare recipient is nothing but a weed.
that’s what I suspected. Someone who lives off the efforts of others then complains about everyone ELSE being greedy.
So why are you complaining about the rich getting richer? You’ll still be standing in line to get yours? Unless you agree that the middle class provides much of the money that you live off?
3 sectors accounted for most of CT’s job growth in the last 22 years: Medical/Education (tracked as one sector), Government, and non-profits serving government services.
What the study doesn’t discuss is the odds of CT going through the decade without the nation facing another recession. 12 years of recovery. Won’t happen. THe odds say it won’t happen.And that doesn’t include at least one international catasrophe during that time: Russian government change, China, Idia, or currency and trade balance issues.
Count on a Romney recession and at least a 10% cut in state revenues from the Feds over the next decade. With counties like Litchfield showing declines in Real Estate prices and median income declines we know where this going as property taxes get strapped, with the unsustainable pensions and unfunded medical benefits for public sector employees and spiraling health and education costs.
See you in Texas! Or Arkansas. Or one of the fracking states.
After the Weicker income tax, we got 20 years of mediocre performance. After Malloy’s record setting tax increases, there will be 20 years of mediocre performance. Check back in 2030.
Malloy is quickly finding out how little positive impact his policies are having, its hard being gov during a recession, you get blamed for it being bad and you have very little chance of things getting better. He’s doing the best he can, the problem is his taxing the state deeper into recession.
taxing the state deeper into recession is doing the best he can? Nothing like setting the bar low
Dont think anyone can fix this recession at this point. Even before Malloy came in we were losing too much of our pay to taxes, over priced houses, have the highest gas prices in the lower 48, high health insurance cost, and the reputation of being a state thats just too expensive to live in with nothing to justify the cost. You can get a luxury apartment down south with a pool etc for significantly less than youd pay for a basic no frills apartment here. CT is a very boring state. Nothing special about it, no special beaches, no special cities, nothing. We even have the most boring license plate of any state. What incentive is there to stay here other than not being able to afford to get out of here.
Sell everything you can and relocate. You always visit.