Category Archives: Data

How We Knew Tom Foley Was in Trouble on Election Night

by Categorized: Data, Politics Date:

For hours after the polls closed Tuesday night, as vote tallies cropped up from town to town, Tom Foley enjoyed a steady if tantalizingly thin HC 10 MALLOY ELECTIONmargin in his quest to unseat Gov. Dan Malloy.

But here at The Scoop, we could tell early on that Foley was in serious trouble, even as he seemed to be thousands of votes ahead.

Our early warning came from a simple system that not only compiled the local results as they were announced, but also analyzed how each candidate was faring compared to their initial match four years ago. That deeper look at the numbers showed that almost from the beginning, there was evidence Foley was facing an uphill battle to avoid a replay of his 2010 defeat.

Connecticut elections typically display a sharp divide between the most-populous cities, which vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and smaller suburban and rural towns, many of which lean moderately or heavily Republican. But it’s those smaller towns, many with a single voting precinct, that report early, giving Republican candidates a phantom edge that can be wiped out when the totals come in from the cities.

In the newsroom, we could see that while Foley once again did well in traditionally Republican towns, he was losing ground in many of those communities compared to four years ago. Later, it was evident that he had failed to substantially chip away at Malloy’s huge margins of victory in the large cities. For more details on how Malloy’s victory came together, see my colleague Dan Haar’s excellent analysis.

Tuesday’s vote offered a fresh reminder of the dangers of reading too much into early returns. So on election nights to come, it’s worth remembering that even with hyper-competitive news coverage of a hyper-competitive political process, patience is still a virtue.

The map below shows how Malloy and Foley fared Tuesday, compared to their vote spreads in 2010. Towns shaded blue are those in which Malloy performed better than four years ago, either by extending his margin of victory or shrinking Foley’s. Similarly, red-shaded towns are those in which Foley either won by more votes or lost by fewer. Deeper colors indicate are more dramatic improvement over 2010. Click on a town for details.

Town-by-Town Vote Margins for Connecticut Governor

by Categorized: Data, Politics Date:

As town results trickle in from local registrars tonight, we’ll begin to have a sense of how Tom Foley and Dan Malloy are faring in the battle for the governor’s office. But since different towns complete their counts in different time frames – and particularly because larger cities tend to lag significantly behind small, one-precinct towns – early figures may give a lopsided view of how the race is really going.

With this campaign a rematch of 2010, a better measure might be to compare each candidate’s town-by-town margin of victory against his margin four years ago. That’s what this chart accomplishes. As each town reports vote totals for Foley and Malloy, the chart will show which candidate saw gains compared to 2010, either by extending his lead or narrowing his opponent’s lead.

So if suburban towns report early in the evening and indicate, as expected, a preference for Foley, this chart will show not merely that Foley is doing well in the suburbs, but whether he’s doing better or worse than he did four years ago. Likewise, while Malloy is expected to win big margins in the cities, this chart will show whether he has lost or gained ground compared to 2010.

Note that the chart will have no data for the 2014 race until the first towns report, sometime after 8 p.m. Note also that refreshing the page will load the latest data.

Away From the Coast, Foley Dominated Gubernatorial Primary

by Categorized: Data, Government, Politics Date:

Tom Foley won a broad and commanding victory in Tuesday’s Republican primary for governor, taking a majority of votes in all but a relative handful of lower-Connecticut cities and towns.

Challenger John McKinney, who lives in Fairfield, had a strong showing in his hometown and bested Foley in 18 other municipalities as well, most of them on the water in Fairfield and New Haven counties. But Foley dominated in every other part of the state.

Below is a town-by-town map of election results as reported by Reuters. Towns shaded red indicate vote spreads favoring Foley and towns shaded blue indicate vote spreads favoring McKinney. Click on a town to see actual results. Results are not available for the two Eastern Connecticut towns in gray: Pomfret and Preston.

Connecticut, Love It or Leave It? Actually, Neither.

by Categorized: Data Date:

There isn’t a house in Connecticut more than about an hour’s drive from a neighboring state. But in a recent Gallup poll, nearly half of us said we pine for those borders, saying we’d pack up the U-Haul and put Connecticut in the rear-view mirror, if only we could.

Connecticut was second only to Illinois in the percentage of state residents who answered “yes” to the question: “Regardless of whether you will move, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move to another state?” Fifty percent of Illinois residents wanted to run for the border, one percentage point higher than Connecticut.movingbox

But while statistically either you or the person next to you right now doesn’t want to be here, the percentage of us actually planning to disconnect the cable and wrap up the dishes is far lower, with 16 percent reporting they were “extremely,” “very” or “somewhat” likely to move in the next year. That was only slightly higher than the national average of 14 percent.

But don’t believe those figures either. Census data show that Americans don’t abandon their states in numbers anywhere near those levels. The most recent Census stats show that an estimated 2.3 percent of U.S. residents lived in a different state a year ago – and Connecticut’s numbers were at that very same percentage.

So the Gallup poll and the Census figures suggest that we grouse more than our fellow Americans, but don’t actually follow through on our disdain for the state.

Joining Connecticut in the Hate-My-State Club were Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Louisiana. In each of those states, at least 40 percent of residents said they would like to swap out their license plates.

The happiest campers: Those in Montana, Hawaii, Maine, Oregon, New Hampshire, Texas, Colorado and Minnesota – where no more than a quarter of residents wish they were someplace else. Nationally, one in three survey respondents said they would move if they could.

Among those who long to get out of Connecticut, one in five cited work or business issues as the main reason – although that figure was still lower than in many other states. Cost of living, on the other hand, was cited far more often by Connecticut residents than those living elsewhere.

The map below shows the Gallup poll figures for each state. Residents of bluer states were the happiest staying put; states that hue orange were populated with those most eager to leave. Click on the map to find the numbers for each state. A data caveat: Gallup says the figures have a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

The OTHER 1-Percenters in Connecticut Politics

by Categorized: Data, Politics Date:

The Whigs have been wiped out in Connecticut.

The Fascist Party has vanished, too. And there is no longer a single Connecticut voter registered with the Marijuana Party.

But across the state, dozens of minor parties endure, with dedicated members offering a serious alternative to the status quo – or just proudly occupying the fringe.

More than 99 percent of the state’s voters are registered as Democrats or Republicans or are formally unaffiliated. But that still leaves thousands of residents who are voting to the beat of a different drum, from the 2,061 Libertarians to the one remaining member of the Guilty Party.

Some of the minor parties are well known, including the Green Party and the Working Families Party (although “Independent” is the most frequently listed minor party designation). But many others are local and fairly obscure, from the three-person Enfield Taxpayers Party to the nine members of Hamden’s Spring Glen Party.

Overall, there are 30 minor parties represented in the state’s voter rolls, with names like “A Better Future” and “Independence for Montville” and “Simsbury Citizens First.” Eight of the parties have just one registered member.

Many more once-active parties have disappeared altogether. The Unity Party has fallen apart, and members apparently lost faith with the now-defunct Evangelical Party. And there are no more members of the Marxist Party, the Nice Party or the Grassroots Party.

And sorry, Star Wars fans: The Jedi Party has also ridden off into the suns-set.

Minor parties exist in every one of Connecticut’s 169 cities and towns. Click the map below to see the number of minor parties – and the number of minor-party members – in each municipality. (Darker colors indicate a greater number of distinct minor parties.)

UConn vs. Notre Dame: Point-by-Point, Minute-by-Minute

by Categorized: Data, Sports, UConn, Uncategorized Date:

Notre Dame led UConn for just 21 of the 2,400 seconds of Tuesday’s NCAA national championship game. The other 99 percent of the game: No contest. Relive the match with these interactive graphics.

The first graphic below is a minute-by-minute chart of the game. Move your mouse over the chart to see the play-by-play progress. Below that is a graphic showing the point spread in UConn’s favor over the 40 minutes of play. The last graphic shows points scored by every player. Use the slider or the arrows to advance through the minutes of the game, to see how the teams and the individual players performed.



UConn vs. Kentucky: Point-by-Point, Minute-by-Minute

by Categorized: Data, Sports, UConn Date:

UConn never trailed during Monday’s win in the NCAA national championship game against Kentucky. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a close game. Relive the victory with these data visualizations.

The first graphic below is a minute-by-minute chart of the game. Move your mouse over the chart to see the play-by-play progress. Below that is a graphic showing the point spread in UConn’s favor over the 40 minutes of play. The last graphic shows points scored by every player. Use the slider or the arrows to advance through the minutes of the game, to see how the teams and the individual players performed.



UConn vs. Stanford: Point-by-Point, Minute-by-Minute

by Categorized: Data, Sports, UConn Date:

Trailing by six in the first half of their semi-final game against Stanford, the Huskies finally found their groove, scoring 12 unanswered points and dominating the rest of the game. UConn will battle Notre Dame Tuesday for the national championship.
The first graphic below is a minute-by-minute chart of the UConn-Stanford game. Move your mouse over the chart to see the play-by-play progress. Below that is a graphic showing points scored by every player. Use the slider or the arrows to advance through the minutes of the game, to see how the teams and the individual players performed.


UConn vs. Florida: Point-by-Point, Minute-by-Minute

by Categorized: Data, Sports, UConn Date:

After a shockingly slow start by the Huskies – including a nearly six-minute dry spell – UConn roared back with a 27-6 run and never looked back. Next stop: The national championship game.

The first graphic below is a minute-by-minute chart of the game. Move your mouse over the chart to see the play-by-play progress. Below that is a graphic showing points scored by every player. Use the slider or the arrows to advance through the minutes of the game, to see how the teams and the individual players performed.

UConn vs. Texas A&M: Point-by-Point, Minute-by-Minute

by Categorized: Data, Sports, UConn Date:

After a rocky start, the UConn women roared ahead of Texas A&M to secure yet another familiar spot in the Final Four. A key turning point: a nearly five-minute Texas drought near the end of the first half, during which the Huskies scored 10 unanswered points. And it wouldn’t be UConn’s only 10-point run.

The first graphic below is a minute-by-minute chart of the game. Move your mouse over the chart to see the play-by-play progress. Below that is a graphic showing points scored by every player. Use the slider or the arrows to advance through the minutes of the game, to see how the teams and the individual players performed.