Capitol Report TV regulars Brian K. Hill and Martin Dunleavy offered up their best primary guesses after taping the show Friday.
Hill, a former GOP U.S. Senate candidate and Dunleavy, a labor union organizer and political consultant, will discuss the various races on Tom Dudchik’s Capitol Report TV, which airs as part of FOX-CT’s political “Power Hour” on Saturday mornings at 9 a.m.
Here are some of their predictions for Tuesday in a few of the more interesting races:
5th District: Hill is predicting an upset win for Mark Greenberg on the Republican side while Dunleavy sees Andrew Roraback prevailing in a squeeker. Hill passed on the Democrats while Dunleavy, a Donovan supporter, is sticking with his candidate.
U.S. Senate: Both men predicted a stronger, if not winning, showing for Chris Shays, who has trailed badly against Linda McMahon. Both agree that Chris Murphy is headed for a win against Susan Bysiewicz.
More on Saturday, or go here to watch online.
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18 Responses to Primary Predictions From Cap Report TV
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McMahon, Murphy, Donovan, Wilson-Foley.
WOW Richard you are way off base. LWF finishes a distant 3rd..
Shays will win in a stunning upset !!!
Wilson-Foley? Wilson-Foley???
Is she running for the Democrat nomination?
She’ll finished fourth.
1. Greenberg – the conservative who will fight Obama
2. Bernier – another conservative who will fight Obama
3. Roraback – a classic NE RINO in the mold of Chris Shays
4. Wilson-Foley – A complete pretender who’s actually a liberal Democrat at heart
The US Senate race is pretty easy to predict. the only question is the margins. I say that McMahon will be up above 70%. Murphy could be closer, around 60%. Honestly, outside the 5th CD, there’s not alot of reason for a Democrat to vote unless its against the status quo. Bysiewicz could monopolize on that.
Let’s go to the 5th:
Donovan has almost no lawn signs out that I can see. Even in Meriden. Again, does he make 25% with his flailing campaign?
Roberti has run an overwhelmingly positive campaign overall, but I don’t think he’s overcome his contacts and name recognition with in the district. I’ll put Esty up narrowly.
On the Republican side, Roraback has invited Democrats to attack him in his RINO quest for the nomination. He’s not known outside his rural northwest corner district and the Torrington area, and will falter heavily in the Farmington Valley and even more so in Waterbury and Meriden with his liberal record. He of course has been the target all along, requiring everyone else to shore up conservative support.
Lisa Wilson Foley’s latest ad even calls herself the conservative candidate. Yet, her failure to conclusively prove that Rowland actually performed the work she claimed he did for her husband has left everyone holding their breath. If the counter- truth comes out about her slippery ad against Greenberg this weekend, she’s toast. She’ll finish last around 15%.
Bernier has been a sleeper as his grassroots campaign is waged on the Fox News Channel and over the phone. He knows that the only votes that matter are Republicans who show up. Greenberg has been vocal and prominently gaining steam. Will they split the social conservative vote, or will they eat away at Roraback’s perceived early advantage?
Whoever wins, it will be by 2% points. I put Roraback 3rd… but extremely close.
Wilson-Foley: An intellectual lightweight who is actually a Democrat at heart. (She was a registered Democrat before declaring herself and Independent; and then an R.) She immediately seized upon Obamacare as a “job maker” (!?!) before backpedaling. Not that bright, and duplicitous. Her campaign is still in limbo re: an FBI investigation that could find her tainted with FEC violations. If elected, she’ll walk, talk, act and vote like the Democrat she really is. When the chips are down on a tough bill – she’s very apt to cave and vote with the Dem’s – just like many of the Northeast RINOs we’ve come to know – and loathe.
Roraback: Smarter than Wilson-Foley but ideologically more of a left-of-center Independent as opposed to a conservative as he likes to claim. Supported the repeal of the death penalty in CT and voted to support a big increase in the diesel fuel tax which adds cost to everything we buy in the state. Bottom line: Andrew’s an old-school R who isn’t up to the tough ideological challenges we face in Washington.
Greenberg: A smart, savvy, scrappy, successful and plain-talking businessman who is rightfully incensed by what Democrats and Obama are doing to the country. Importantly, he’s energized to do something about it. Comes across as a bit rough around the edge at times, but is a man who will fight to right the wrongs that this administration has done to this great country. Send him to Washington and he’ll restore our competitiveness abd create an economic environment that will promote growth and reduce our shameful $16T debt.
Bernier: A bright, articualte, energetic businessman and a veteran who proudly and honorably served our country. Earned considerable ‘inside’ experience in the workings of the congressional budgeting process under the Bush administration and knows how to get legislation passed. Of the 4 candidates, he’s the only one with DC administrative experience which will serve him well if elected. Like Greenberg, he’s angered and energized by what Obama has done to the our economy and will fight to change the course of our country. Some people are put off by Justin’s feisty demeanor, but they would be wrong. We need people who will fight for CT and America, and Justin has done that in his military service, and he’ll do it again in Congress.
Bottom line: The first two are classic examples of the New England RINOs who have helped bring our nation to the brink of economic and fiscal Armageddon. We don’t need no more stinkin’ RINOs.
That leaves CT with two good conservative choices – either of whom will fight to correct the disastrous course that Obama has set, and help restore fiscal sanity to the congressional budget. So, pick one of them; Greenberg or Bernier. Either will serve CT-5 and the rest of CT and the nation by fighting for the founding principles that made America the greatest nation on the Earth and in history.
Choose wisely, Connecticut. Choose Bernier or Greenberg.
Shays wins the 4th 2-1, the second big time (I’m here now on the streets of niantic) and he squeeks out a win in the 3rd. biggest upset coming for linda in state history! !btw if ur not on the streets in every district you don’t know jack!
You don’t know jack you loser.
I think Chris Murphy will suffer an unpredicted upset Tuesday night.
Click on this link to see the outstanding liens tax and small business cheat Greenberg owes. Maybe he should sell one of his private jets to pay the towns and small business owners he has stiffed. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/28665072/Greenberg_Documents.pdf
A vote for Greenberg is a vote for one more tax cheat in DC!
What the heck, I’ll get in the pool. Low turnout can shake things up. I think Shays and Bysiewicz will do better than expected but probably still lose. So here goes.
Murphy 57% Bysiewicz 43%
Bysiewicz has enough name recognition to keep it somewhat repsectable.
McMahon 52% Shays 48%
McMahon’s negatives and Shays name recognition make it closer than people expect. Potential for upset.
Roraback 38% Greenberg 35% Wilson Foley 27%
Call Roraback a RINO but hey, this is Connecticut and the other two scare people.
Esty 41% Donovan 39% Roberti 20%
Donovan’s ground game almost pulls it out but the scandal weighs heavy. Roberti is not being taken seriously.
Oops. Left Bernier out.
Roraback 35% Golberg 24% Wilson-Foley 22% Bernier 19%
Our state is in an economic bind
Taxpayers are upset and that’s putting it kind
Will voters ever be true
In a state some blue
Stupid Democrats voting as if they are out of their mind
Shays 51 – 49
Bycewicz 52 – 48
With those early polls that showed romps, low turnout suggests that many endorsed party candidates supporters are staying home believing thier candidate is a lock…Double underdog day…
In the 5th Donovan will win a squeaker…and the Republican 5th is up for grabs with hardly anyone voting…
Better showing from Greenberg than I expected. The polls pretty much had Esty and Rorabeck the last few weeks. Unimpressive wins from the two leaders.
The American left is the most self-indulgent, arrogant, and spoiled group of people on the face of the earth. They live in a nation facing national bankruptcy and societal upheaval — a country presently subsisting on the residue of past economic achievements. Yet the only things that matter to them are their lifestyles and imposing their self-determined superiority on rest of the American people.
The true indebtedness of the United States now exceeds $222 trillion. Appearing on National Public Radio in August of 2011 Professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff of Boston University said:
If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, and subtract all the taxes we expect to collect, the difference is $211 Trillion. This is the fiscal gap. That is our true indebtedness.
Since that interview, the indebtedness has increased by another $11 trillion. Yet these estimates do not include the full impact of ObamaCare, which could add another $17+ trillion. On the other side of the ledger: the annual Gross Domestic Product (the value of all economic activity in the U.S.) is $15.6 trillion. The indebtedness to GDP ratio is a staggering 14.2 to 1 and guaranteed to further accelerate if Barack Obama is re-elected.
The United States is not facing bankruptcy, it is bankrupt. The primary factor that has kept the nation afloat over the past four years is that the dollar, albeit temporarily, remains the world’s reserve currency, thus allowing the Federal Reserve to print enormous sums of money to cover the Obama budget deficits and flood the global market with near worthless cash. Today it requires $100.00 to purchase the same goods $10.00 purchased in 1950.
As a further comparison, the total annual GDP of all the countries on earth is $70 trillion. The American indebtedness alone exceeds that amount by a factor of 3 — which contributes mightily to a world drowning in debt and facing an inevitable debt crisis and financial collapse, which will trigger a massive global depression.
Currently, just 58.4% of the civilian population is employed, as compared to 64.3% twelve years ago. Factoring in the growth of the population during that period, this drop represents over 22 million Americans unable to find work. Since January 2009, 74% of all new jobs created in the U.S. were in the lowest-paying sectors of the economy, thereby stifling any chance of upward mobility and growth in median income which has fallen by 9% since January 2009, and average household wealth that has declined by nearly 40% over this same period. This failure is a byproduct of a tsunami of government regulations, mandates, and taxes which has nearly destroyed the innovation and business and job-creation that made the American economy so vibrant over the latter part of the 20th century. That innovation has now moved overseas, along with over 7.5 million high-paying goods-producing jobs since 2000.
The reaction of the self-described progressives to this dire scenario? Sweep the facts under the rug or ignore them completely, as it appears that the most important things in their lives are the legalization of gay marriage, free contraceptives and abortifacients, worshiping at the altar of extreme and discredited environmentalism, mocking and undermining all organized religion (except Islam), and telling the American people what they can eat, where they can live, what may be taught in their schools, how they must operate their businesses, and what health care they can access.
To the true believers on the left, re-electing Barack Obama is not a matter of what is or is not good for the country; rather, for the majority on the left, the primary motivation is geared solely toward defeating their sworn enemy: conservatives and Republicans, whom many falsely believe are a right-wing horde determined to create a theocracy and impose old-fashioned morality. But what they fear most from the right is a determination to reinstitute unfettered individual freedom and concomitant economic growth, which would relegate the American left to the back bench of American society.
Thus, to them, what the policies of Barack Obama and his radical minions are doing to the long-term fate of nation is immaterial as long as Obama regurgitates his support for the various causes that are near and dear to the coalition that makes up the left. There are two common threads to the belief system of American progressives: 1) an omnipotent central government controlled by them, and 2) an assumption that there is a bottomless pit of money to be siphoned from an equally bottomless pit of wealth. But this is not the same nation that experienced unprecedented prosperity from 1946 to 2007. It is not the same nation in which these narcissists on the left grew up, never knowing national adversity or trauma.
The manner in which these progressives, and their titular leader Barack Obama, are conducting themselves in the current campaign season is indicative of their arrogant and immature mindset. To the vast majority on the left, this campaign is merely a game played out on the playground of American politics, wherein they childishly engage in name-calling and temper tantrums reminiscent of spoiled brats determined to get their way, regardless of the consequences.
It is time to grow up and understand that the America that could absorb all the excessive spending, promises, and left-wing fun and games is no more. This nation cannot survive on its present course, and if that course is not dramatically reversed, those on the left will suffer as much as if not more than the bulk of the American people they are trying to rule. History has shown repeatedly that when an overwhelming political and social catastrophe strikes a nation, the people turn against the ruling class, often with a vengeance. In the United States, that ruling class is presently dominated by the American left.
I bet McMahon, Murphy, Etsy, and Roraback win last night.
wow