Chris Murphy, Linda McMahon and Chris Donovan are all sitting on fat leads in various polls, but the recent history of summer voting in Connecticut should make any candidate sweat.
It’s a primary. In August. You can thank state legislators for this ridiculous exercise designed to make it difficult for incumbents to lose. And while summer primaries are an unbelievably bad idea for democracy, they can be difficult to predict when no incumbent is running.
Example No. 1 is Dannel Malloy, who trailed badly in polls in gubernatorial primary races in the summers of 2006 and 2010. Down by 20 points with less than a month to go two years ago, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll of registered voters, Malloy trounced Ned Lamont by 16 points on primary day.
Example No. 2 is also Malloy. He lost to John DeStefano in 2006, but the margin was razor-thin in a race in which the Quinnipiac poll had Malloy down by 20 points with three weeks to go.
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2 Responses to Summer Voting: Don’t Believe The Polls
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Whatever your choice, please vote on August 14th. If only the most motivated voters get to the poles, then the extreme candidates tend to win. If you are not registered, there is time to register. If you are registered as unaffiliated, there is time to switch to a party registration so your voice can be heard (You can always switch back right after you vote). If you are going to be on vacation, you can request an absentee ballot.
Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter by nine points in the summer of 1980…on election day Carter wound up only winning the Bay State.
Polls are for liberals and strippers.